TSR # 7 Kerch Bridge Explosion.
I have had some issues regarding the current state of geopolitics. As you may have noticed, the world is a bit off from where we were in the last issue of The Sanford Report. While you all don’t know it, I have been keeping busy, and working to keep abreast of developments. I’ve built up contacts and sources to keep myself, and by extension you, informed.
Things are changing around the world almost daily. The vast amount of sheer propaganda in which the population of the world is being drowned in, is fairly astounding. “Ah, yeah the Russians…” I can hear you saying. Sure… but not just them. EVERYONE. The United States Government, the United Kingdom, NATO, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and most, if not all major media outlets I have personally found to be outright lying on numerous occasions.
So, in issue number 7 of TSR, we’re going to look at one specific incident; we’ll take a look at the explosion on the Kerch Bridge.
ABOVE: A Google Earth image of the Kerch Bridge before the attack.
In total the Kerch bridge was built with 2 lanes westbound (kind of south but it curves at a midpoint island), 2 east bound (north: IE towards Crimea). The four traffic lanes are separated by two metal guard rails and a gap of perhaps a meter or two in the center. I presume this is for maintenance / emergency services access. On the west side of the bridge there is a two-line rail bridge built separately, and in some places significantly higher than the four-lane automobile bridge. The four-lane automobile bridge deck is about 25 meters wide / 80 feet (approximate). Importantly, power cables run through the bridge, as there are regularly space streetlights on either side of the automobile deck. Furthermore, these cables are exposed on the rail line side and could be tapped into to provide power for an explosive charge.
I know this isn’t the exciting part, but bridges are built to stand. They are built to withstand weather, salt spray (at least this one must have been), tidal flows, and the weight of heavy vehicles. Bridges are not easy things to bring down. To have any idea of how the bridge could have been taken down, we’ve got to do our research, just like I’m sure the people who blew up the bridge did. How deep is the water? Which way does the current flow? How high is the bridge deck over the water? Are their service ladders, electric power? What is security like on the bridge? (I.E., not good enough apparently…)
The height of the bridge deck (at arch) is 35 meters over the water, which isn’t more than 30 meters deep. (About 95 feet). This isn’t deep water, and there isn’t much margin for error outside the main shipping channel. As you can see in the below image, the water in the area is fairly shallow.
Okay, we’ve covered the main specifications of the bridge. So, what happen? How did someone bring this bridge down? (Partly, the demo wasn’t complete and 2 lanes of the bridge are already back in service, as are the rail lines.) Would it help if I told you I had no idea? No really, I do have some ideas, and I know what DID NOT bring the bridge down.
1) This was NOT an airstrike.
2) This was NOT a truck bomb (sort of, but I’ll get to that.)
3) This was NOT a submarine attack.
Okay, so what was it? Well, here’s where I tell you how I would have done it, had I been given the task, and based on the images I’ve seen of the destruction. This was, almost certainly, a special forces demolition job. And just on a professional basis, this was a pretty good job. I wouldn’t rate it as 100%, because only two lanes were brought down, and the rail line is still open. I’d rate it as a solid “B” in terms of a job well done. And that alone tells us something. It tells us that the Kerch bridge was NOT a demo job of the United States Navy Special Warfare operators. I assume those fellows would have dropped both lanes of traffic, though things do happen… so let’s not rule them out completely. But over all I’m assuming this demo job was Ukrainian Special Forces.
How I’d have done it. (But I was never a member of the United States Special Operations Community, so keep that in mind.)
For this job would have used at team of 8-16 operators inserted by small boat, with prepared demolition charges. The boat wouldn’t go closer than about 1000 yards from the bridge, perhaps using an old fishing boat to blend in with the commercial traffic and fishing industry. Divers would go in the water and swim from the north. (The traffic lanes face the Sea of Azov; the Rail lines face the Black Sea.) The support pier’s holding up the bridge deck are spaced at 60 meters, and I’d want to place charges on the underside of the bridge deck in at least 3 different places, perhaps 5. Though it is very possible that only two places were demoed, based on the damage in the available images. Each placement will require two operators, plus some operators providing security cover for the demo guys. Again, this points to 8- 16 divers/ operators.
The demolition team, as can be clearly seen in the post blast images, took full advantage of the Monroe Effect, as the sheer tonnage of a single conventional blast would have made the job unworkable. This is a case where bigger isn’t better. One big blast would NOT have resulted in the damage we see. It’s too clean, too precise. Shaped charge - Wikipedia
A shape charge cutting explosive was in all likelihood the system used to blow the bridge. However, there were at least two separate types of explosives used and at least three separate charges, but I’ll get back to that. Back to the demolition.
Once the divers are at the bridge, either at the location of the blast, or inserting from another point and using the service access on the bridge to move to their demolition points. The main bridge deck is actually two separate decks, with space between them. It is possible that the operators planted the charges in this area. It may surprise you to learn that the actual explosives used probably didn’t weigh all that much. You wouldn’t need to cut across the entire bridge deck of 25 meters. Personally, I’d use a flex linear shape charge of about 3-5 meters on each side of the bridge deck at each location. At each cut location the operators likely weren’t carrying more than about 20 kilos / 44 pounds of explosive charges (pre-rigged) each. Two charges per cut location and you’re looking at no more than 120 kilograms/ 250 pounds of explosives. Each charge would need to cut through about 3 feet/ 1 meter of reenforced concrete with steel supports. Which isn’t as difficult as it sounds as once weakened the weight of the structure will assist in bringing it down.
An illustration of how a basic cutting charge is made. Sciencemadness Discussion Board - Unconventional Shaped Charges - Powered by XMB 1.9.11
That’s not a whole lot of explosives, but if they’re rigged up correctly, you don’t need much more. It’s the location of the charges, not the total size of the blast that matters here. But that isn’t all. There was a bit of misdirection here. Because I can hear you asking; “What about the truck?” Yeah, this wasn’t a truck bomb…but it was totally a truck bomb. Let me explain. A truck bomb doesn’t blow like that. A truck bomb would have damaged the upper deck, scorched everything (which we do see) and not made clean cuts. There was a truck bomb involved, but the truck didn’t bring down the bridge. The truck bomb was misdirection.
I believe that the truck was filled with ANFO, with powdered aluminum add to the ANFO mix to increase detonation sensitivity. The presence of some sort of aluminum / thermite mix was clearly added to the mixture as showers of sparks can clearly be seen in the blast videos. Burning thermite generally results in those showers of sparks, conventional ANFO does not. Furthermore, the extensive charring / blackening of the area around the bridge, and as far as igniting a passing train on fire indicates that some sort of incendiary agent/ low explosive / thermite charge was used as a secondary blast.
Truck, linear cutting charges, rumors of submarines, truck bombs… How does it all go together? Well until someone talks or writes a book, we’ll never know for sure. However, the inclusion of the truck leaves a very bad taste in my mouth. My country, and myself personally for a little bit, just finished more than 20 years of war. We fought people who didn’t hesitate to kill their own in suicide attacks. Ukraine using suicide bombers with trucks leaves a very bad taste in my mouth. It begs the question, were the two or three people in that truck volunteers, or were they volunteered? Either way, not cool. Were they even told that they were driving a truck bomb? It wouldn’t surprise me if they were not.
I personally think that there might have been RFID chips in the truck, and that could have been the (primary) source for the detonation. At least that’s one way I might have done it. Here’s how it goes together. The demo team goes in from the water, plants 4-8 linear shape charges across the underside of the top, or lower bridge deck. Those charges are connected (daisy chained as we called it back in my army days). At least 2, possibly 4 RFID readers are placed on the bridge deck, on the road. A backup timer is included, making sure the blast goes even if the truck never shows. (a wireless remote detonation seems a bit risky for something like this, as most nations and many companies have jammers designed to stop that sort of thing.) Perhaps an anti-tamper trigger was included in the package, ensuring no one tries to disarm the bombs.
Once the charges are placed around the bridge deck, the demo team leaves. Likely by boat and/ or with diving equipment. When the divers/ demo team is safely out of the water and back on their boat at a safe distance, the truck is ordered across the bridge. This part needs to be timed correctly, and it is certainly possible that the demo team did the work the night before, depending on how long it took them to work, and how many hours of darkness and travel time they needed. The blast happened while what appears to be a tank car train was crossing the bridge. Was this simply good luck on the side of the demo team, or was the train part of the plan? I’d assume that given the military demands for fuel, train cars filled with gasoline or fuel cross that bridge on a regular, perhaps scheduled basis.
Once the truck is on the bridge, an arming safety is triggered. The RFID reader knows the bridge speed limit, and the driver would have been told not to draw attention to themselves by speeding. (it’s 80 km/ hour if I recall) The truck is caught by the first RFID reader as it approaches the blast site. Personally, and this is just my opinion, I don’t think the driver of the truck knew what was about to happen to them. They were probably told that the bomb wasn’t armed, and to drive into Russia to some other target and drop the truck off. Every car/ truck bomb I’ve seen the driver swerves as they reach for the detonator, or they speed up knowing they are close to their target. They get nervous, they twitch, brake, or something other than calmly drive in the slow lane. I really don’t think the driver of the truck knew what was about to happen.
Based on the images I’ve seen, plus the size of the scorching, I’m guessing that there was between 2000-3000 pounds of aluminum enhanced ANFO in the back of that truck. It was a big truck, but it wasn’t sagging like it was carrying a massive load. Plus, you’d want to put filler around the bomb to make it harder to access for security forces and a standard roadside police inspection. (1000-1500 kilos, roughly, but again, just a guess, and how I’d do it.)
As the truck reaches the ideal detonation point it triggers the linear charges on the bridge, by some means. Could be RFID, could be a commercial GPS rigged to a “You’ve reached your destination…Goodbye.” It could have been a remarkably well-timed clock. (Speed x distance= time of blast.) The linear charges go all at once, or near enough, cutting through the bridge deck. The blast triggers (by some means, internal to the truck, or as a secondary, with a small mine or something) the aluminum enhanced ANFO in the truck. “BOOM”.
Here is one video of the blast that was posted online. Russian media share video of Crimean Bridge explosion | Ukrainska Pravda
Okay, so ruling things out. First the airstrike theory. NOPE. Crimea is chock full of surface to air missile sites, nasty things like the S-400, S-300 and more. While I haven’t seen any evidence of it, as they are usually well camouflaged, short range point defense missile systems like SA-21 or Tor could have been near the bridge. Russia and Ukraine would have both been extremely vocal about aircraft if any had been used. Second, this doesn’t look like an airstrike. It’s hard to explain, but it just wasn’t an airstrike. And lastly, Ukraine doesn’t have the aircraft inventory capable of pulling something like this off. A Ukrainian MiG-29 or Su-27 wouldn’t have been able to get anywhere near the bridge, and if it did, neither are capable of carrying big enough precision weapons that would be necessary to drop a bridge…any bridge in the manner seen. It wasn’t an airstrike, and even if an airstrike was considered the Ukrainian Air Force doesn’t have the personal or equipment to carry out such a strike, let alone so far from their bases and deep behind Russian lines and into the teeth of Russian Air Defenses.
Submarines. Um…no. The shipping channel under the Kerch bridge is narrow, and like most shipping channels, probably has some nasty currents. Oh, and shipping traffic. No submarine skipper would want to take their boat in there. Not that it is completely impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Furthermore, the demo wasn’t in the main arch area of the bridge which covers the deepest part of the shipping channel which is where a submarine would need to be. That channel is probably only about 90 feet deep. (*from the information I’ve been able to gather.) The water on either side of the channel is even shallower, in some parts it looks to be more like 5 -10 meters. Even a remote submersible wouldn’t do well in that environment. Let me tell you a dirty little secret about bridges. Every bridge I’ve ever swam from or dived under has been littered with discarded cables, broken concrete, fishing hooks, boat anchors, beer cans, and other litter. You don’t want your top secret remote underwater vehicle getting wrapped up in fishing line and discarded bridge cables. And again, this clearly wasn’t a water-based detonation. There’s no splash coming up, only blast going down. However, it was done, those explosives were on the bridge, not in or near the water. This wasn’t a submarine, or a sea mine.
Well, that is my take on the Kerch Bridge Explosion. This is my best guess, based on my personal experience, talking to different experts in vasious feilds, and based on the available evidence I’ve been able to gather. This was an expertly planned, and professionally (for the most part) carried out demolition. What the occupants of the truck did or didn’t know when they drove over that bridge, we probably won’t ever know the truth of. Either way, the suicide or coerced truck occupants leaves a very bad taste in my mouth and merits a huge deduction in professionalism. When this war started, I knew it was going to be especially nasty, but suicide bombers isn’t something I was expecting Ukraine to use. It leaves me wondering just what sort of people are we really supplying weapons too? I’ve seen evidence of western weapons showing up in the hands of terrorist groups from Syria to Pakistan, and those weapons trace back to shipments given to Ukraine. I won’t go too much into that in this issue, but I’m sure we’ll get to it. It’s a nasty war with no clean hands. Kids are dying, people are being left homeless, and whole families are ending up in mass graves. There are Nazis, communists, black market arms dealers, grey market arms dealers, energy companies, media companies, weapons industries, tech companies, nationalists, Islamic insurgents, Chechen fighters, and everything else thrown into the mix. And that counts for both sides. There are no clean hands in this war.
I know that anyone not towing the company line is blasted as “Russian propaganda”. But I just want the truth, and damn near everyone is lying, on both sides. Half the western world is hurdling towards economic recession, as the sanctions hurt the west while Russian oil profits soar. As always, sanctions aren’t working. (Big surprise…) Well, if the sanctions are meant to kill the European and American economies, they’re working great. Seen the price of gas, or food lately? But we’ll go more in depth on how the sanctions are shaping the world market soon. And on that note…
To close out issue number 7 of The Sanford Report, I’d like to let you know that TSR will be expanding. I have found someone else who is going to share their insights, opinions, theories, and information with you through TSR. I won’t spoil the surprise, but I think you’ll be interested in what they have to say. For various reasons, this new editorial voice will be known here at TSR as P.I. Clarke. I want you to hear a different opinion, a different viewpoint, and P.I. Clarke will provide that. P.I. Clarke and I don’t always agree, but both of strive to find the truth in all things. I think you’ll like what they have to say.
Thanks for reading Issue No. 7 of TSR.
~Steve Sanford.
Editor and Publisher, The Sanford Report.
Helpful links and some sources:
Explosives - ANFO (Ammonium Nitrate - Fuel Oil) (globalsecurity.org)
Russian media share video of Crimean Bridge explosion | Ukrainska Pravda