August 2nd, 2023
Editor's Note:
Rather than doing in depth feature length reports, we're going to try something new at TSR. A Weekly quick briefing which contains a top five list of areas of concern, or things to watch. These items will be chosen by TSR contributors and editors.
Thanks so much for reading, we hope you like the new format. It is hoped that doing brief overview type reports such as this will enable TSR to get more information out to you. We look forward to hearing your feedback. (We'll still do the long reports, but there are logistics issues with those, making them difficult to post. They'll still come out; we're just adding these.)
Copyright TSR 2023
Five things to watch, 1st week of August 2023
1) Russian-Ukrainian war: Ongoing military conflict.
2) Ukraine vs. European Union: Agricultural trade, Grain market. Poland has recalled their Ambassador to Ukraine over this and reported “insulting” remarks by officials in the Ukrainian government. Ukraine has reportedly also recalled their ambassador from Warsaw. At a time when much of western military aide going to Ukraine flows through Poland, this diplomatic spat could have unintended consequences.
3)Niger, West Africa. Coup in Niger, coup leaders have cut off supplies of uranium to France, which is currently very dependent on atomic energy after losing access to cheap Russian gas as a result of EU sanctions on Russia.
4) United States of America: Legal Indictment of former President Donald Trump. Charges include “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States.” “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding” “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding. “Conspiracy Against Rights”. This indictment is a federal indictment, adding to indictments in Florida, New York and Georgia.
5) China, People's Liberation Army-Navy: Type 003 Air Craft Carrier, seems to have completed dock trials. It is expected that the conventional air craft carrier will start initial sea trials before the end of 2023. Following sea trials, the ship will conduct air operations trials.
While it may not seem so at first glance, all of the Top 5 for this week are related. The war in Ukraine has resulted in thousands of deaths, and a mass migration of refugees from the war zone, military age men on both sides attempting to flee military conscription. Ukraine, once one of the largest suppliers of cereal grains and animal feeds to the European Union is facing a backlash against cheap grains from Poland, Romania, and Hungary. This has resulted in a diplomatic row between these nations.
In the previous weeks, Ukrainian attacks on Russian shipping in the Black Sea, and the failure of the EU to abide by the UN-Turkey-Russian black sea grain shipment deal led Russia to withdraw from the agreement and begin targeting commercial ships carrying Ukrainian exports of food stuffs. Russia has instituted a defacto naval blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports and began targeting Ukrainian Danube River ports with cruise missile strikes and drone attacks. Given that agricultural products are nearly the only export product Ukraine has (not counting sex trafficking, pornography and black-market weapons of course), this will have an effect on the overall Ukrainian economy. Prior to the war, it is estimated that around 31% of the world's cereal market came from Russia and Ukraine, with a near complete halt of exports from both those nations at the time of this writing.
Much of the exported cereal products from Russia and Ukraine end up in Africa, as grain and agricultural products from the EU, or the United States are more expensive. There is little doubt that there will be a massive increase in food prices across Africa, and much of the developing world. Not only because of the targeting of grain shipments, but also because of petroleum products. With Russian oil embargoed by the west, the number of suppliers of crude has shrunk, with producers such as Saudi Arabia declining to increase production to lower costs. Petroleum products are of course used in everything from powering farm machinery, to making fertilizers. The overall outlook for world food prices seems to indicate they will become more expensive in the very near future. This has a disproportional effect on the developing world but does affect everyone.
Further bad news for developing world food prices is South Africa, which isn't on this week's top five but would easily make #6. There have been open and public calls by South African government officials for genocide of white farmers. There is evidence of military and police officials in South Africa actively supporting the murder of white farmers and their families with weapons, equipment and personal. Soldiers with cellphone jamming equipment have been photographed participating in these crimes. (We can't publish the images.) South Africa is clearly, and purposefully committing genocide. Apart from the obvious horror of these government crimes against humanity, these actions will only further aggravate the food crisis which is rapidly approaching the African Continent.
It is highly recommended that travel be avoided to South Africa.
Furthermore, regarding #3, Niger recently hosted a military coup. The coup leaders have cut off supplies of uranium to France. (As well as other mineral exports) France is heavily dependent on nuclear power for energy production once supplies of cheap Russian natural gas were cut off. In the past few days at least 6 people have been killed by French military forces in Niger. (Those are media reported numbers, it's probably higher.) The French are accusing the coup leaders of inciting protesters to attack the French Embassy, and claim their forces acted in self-defense.
While TSR is unable to confirm it, there are rumors that the French government is considering military action in Niger to restore the previous government. NATO officials have not publicly commented on military action but are rumored to be in talks with the French about this issue.
The French president's office said, "...[France]...will not tolerate any attack against France and its interests".
(France warns will retaliate if its interests attacked in Niger - Africa - World - Ahram Online )
Currently, the flagship of the French Fleet, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, is reported to be on deployment to the Persian Gulf. The most recent update available listed the aircraft carrier somewhere in the Persian Gulf, North of UAE, and south east of Qatar with it's air wing conducting operations against ISIL forces in Iraq and Syria. Charles de Gaulle left it's home port of Toulon early in the year for a deployment to the Gulf of Aden and Persian Gulf. (Editor's Note: The French heavily sensor military information. We wanted to be upfront with you on the quality of this information.)
Above: Graphic of current French Military Deployments from the French Ministry of Defense. (Operations | Ministry of the Armed Forces (defense.gouv.fr))
It should be noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran announced Naval drills in the Persian Gulf this week as well, and tensions have been high in the region, making it difficult for the French to move the Charles de Gaulle towards West Africa if they decide on military action there. Iranian naval forces have also recently fired on commercial ships which refused to stop for inspections, further increasing tensions in the region.
Several of Niger's neighbors have pledged that any attack on Niger will be regarded as an attack on their nations as well. These include Mali and Burkina Faso. South of Niger, the Nigerian government this week eliminated gasoline subsidies. Fuel prices, food prices and protests have resulted in Nigeria, creating further instability in the region. Nigeria has also cut supplies of electricity to Niger as a result of the coup. (A reported 70% of electricity in Niger comes from Nigeria.) Nigerian government officials have said publicly military options in Niger should be a last resort, further implying that military action is not at all off the table. The African Union has set a deadline of 15 days for the coup leaders to restore the elected government in Niger.
Moving on to the United States, and we can see that developing nations in Africa are not the only ones suffering political problems. Former President Donald Trump has again been indicted, this time in Federal court. TSR staff has stopped counting the charges against the former president, and only included this because of the possible threat of riots or terrorist actions which these new charges may inspire. The former president is currently seeking the Republican Nomination for the President of the United States, allowing the possibility of the 2024 Presidential election to be a rerun of the 2020 election. (Editor's note: More Dumpster, More Fire. MDMF)
Below: PLAN's type 003 aircraft carrier fitting out. Image from May 2023. Image Credit Google Earth.
China's Type 003 PLAN aircraft carrier has reportedly finished dock trials and power plant tests at the Jiangnan shipyard in which she was built (Near Shanghai). The ship, named “Fujian”, is the PLAN's first conventional aircraft carrier. Fujian has been equipped with electro-mechinical catapult launch systems for her three catapults. The ship will have a reported four arresting wires. The PLAN's two other carriers (016 & 017) are ski-jump carriers based on the Russian Kuznetsov class design. Lacking catapults, 016 and 017 are unable to launch heavy aircraft such as Airborne Warning and Control Aircraft (AWACS), or large aerial refueling tankers. (They are reportedly able to use buddy refueling systems and launch those on J-15 fighters.)
Once Fujian has completed her sea trials, she will begin aircraft trials, launching and recovering the PLAN standard fighter, the J-15. (A Chinese upgrade of the Russian Su-33 Flanker “D”.) Furthermore, it seems that the new ship borne AWACS being built for the Chinese military, the KJ-600, is nearing the end of its flight testing. The KJ-600 will likely operate from the Fujian in a similar role to the United States Navy E-2 AWACS. In addition to the KJ-600, and the J-15, China has also been testing their new 5th generation low-RCS fighter, the J-35. This aircraft has been spotted undergoing launch and recovery testing at China's land-based Aircraft carrier training field. (Much the same way the United States first tests new carrier aircraft at land-based facilities.)
Above: China's new J-35 carrier fighter.
Above: J-15 and J35 fighters at China's shore based carrier training center. Image credit, Google Earth.
It is expected that Fujian will enter service around 2025 time frame, however it could be much sooner. Reports of the J35 beginning shore based carrier trials didn't appear in the west until mid summer 2023, while there are images, including the one above, showing J-35's doing carrier training in the early spring of 2022. While catapults for carriers are new to the PLAN, they have done their homework. Multiple PLAN watchers and sources in the PLAN itself have hinted that China's next carrier, Type 004, has already been laid down. Official's in China have, multiple times, publicly stated that China wouldn't be building more carriers until they had some experience with Fujian.
Once Fujian is commissioned into the PLAN, this will put the PLAN's carrier force at 3, in theory allowing one carrier for each fleet command. (South Sea Fleet, North Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet). While China's carriers are slightly smaller (even the 80,000-ton Fujian) than American Carriers, and the PLAN has less experience than the United States Navy, China also lacks the massive number of tasking missions that U.S. Navy carriers must perform. In brief, the United States Navy needs a total of nine carriers, just to counterbalance China. (1 to 1 carriers, 1 in transit or training, 1 in refit/ drydock.) This does not include other tasking the United States Navy must also perform, such as NATO mission, Counter ISIL operations, Countering Iran in the Persian Gulf, any Operations which might be tasked off the coast of West Africa or covering events like the ongoing Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea. (It is a scheduled event, announced by the Russians, but NATO naval forces will still be observing it carefully.) At the time of this writing, there are eleven carriers in commission by the United States Navy.
Expect to see more announcements from the PLAN in the coming weeks. The PLAN is rapidly building up, including reportedly ordering five further Type 055 class Destroyers (Renhai Class) this year. (These are extremely large destroyers, with a 13,000-ton estimated displacement, and an estimated 110 + vertical launch cells on each ship. The United States Navy listed these ships as cruisers.) The Type 055 class ships are probably the world's current most powerful surface combatants, with only the Kirov Class (only one of which is in service, another undergoing a full modernization) approaching the capabilities of the Type 055. Though the Kirov class are much larger, at around 28,000 tons full load. There are currently eight Type 055 class ships in active service with the PLAN. (Hull numbers 101-108)
This is just scratching the surface of global security news TSR believes we should all be keeping an eye on. This list was put together because much of the global security news seems dominated by propaganda regarding the war in Ukraine. It's important to remember that threats to global security come from all directions, including food prices, coups, fuel prices, and naval arms races. TSR staff and contributors are working on further, more detailed publications. Currently items on the Russia-Ukraine war are being written and edited. We at TSR believe that these will give you a non-western viewpoint of the war, that you probably won't get other places. Furthermore, look for more information on the PLAN. And as always, who knows what topic will attract our attention.
Enjoy your week,
TSR
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